Solid economic growth in the first part of the year, combined with decreasing inflation, led to strong returns thus far. Despite this, there is some volatility expected with a slower moving economy in the coming months. And a slower moving economy will be more sensitive to shocks and could be more susceptible to a recessionary environment. Sean Tesoro, President of Salem Five Wealth Management & Trust, gives an overview of what to expect this fall and how this affects finances and investments.

The economy, and as a result, the mortgage industry is experiencing significant changes. The Federal Reserve recently approved a half point rate cut in September, which was the first one since 2020. And, economic conditions may continue to support future rate cuts, as the data the Federal Reserve consumes to set their policy centers around their primary mission to keep inflation at a controlled pace. The target is an annual 2.0% inflation rate. Reports such as manufacturing activity, unemployment, and monthly inflation readings are important to their policy stance and they will be watching these indicators closely.

Even prior to the recent rate cut, mortgage rates had already improved, based on the projected cuts. I would anticipate a long, slow ride down for mortgage rates over the coming quarters if inflation looks to continue its cooling trend. In contrast, I believe we will continue to see real estate values increase in New England, as they have done so since 2012, because of basic supply vs. demand dynamics. With most listings receiving multiple offers from potential buyers, it highlights the continued demand that is not being met. Where lower rates will improve affordability for buyers, I expect this supply-constrained market to continue, resulting in an ongoing challenging market for buyers.

Many lenders believe the past two+ years of a much higher rate environment has begun to condition the buying population to a new normal of interest rate environment. I have heard the term “rate realization” being used to describe this. With this new perspective, it will be interesting to see what rate is now considered “low” enough to see a marked uptick in activity. Only time will tell.
As history has revealed, inflation can be stubborn. If we see economic reports that are indicative of a higher rate of inflation affecting the economy, we will likely see mortgage rates quickly and sharply trend higher as a result. I am sure the Fed Board of Governors is sensitive to this, and we would see at least a pause in their series of proposed rate cuts to stem this.

Mortgage seekers should watch the economy and rate fluctuations, but to a degree. There are products that are built for conditions such as this – and have been leveraged in prior economic environments – such as adjustable rate mortgages and some of Salem Five’s proprietary portfolio products. We at Salem Five have been helping New Englanders buy homes for generations. We’ve seen it all.